2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket
On the heels of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and recent stock market turmoil, it’s not lost upon me that trying to predict the future is an exercise in futility. The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 128 billion for those who follow college basketball and employ some strategic in making their picks. For the rest, the odds are actually 1 in 9.2 quintillion. This, I can accept (again, I must admit that I am grossly overconfident here: I love college basketball, but have not watched a single game this year).
But the odds of predicting, say, the Sweet Sixteen or even the Elite Eight have to be much better….right?
Probably not by much. Which is why the real difference between how I invest and how I approach March Madness is that I don’t bet money on sports. I’m somehow more aspirational and confident about how well my bracket will fare, but I’m not willing to bet money on it. And part of the reason for that is clearly evident now, as I look back at my 2022 and 2021 NCAA tournament brackets and see myself making the same mistakes, without even realizing it. March Madness really is madness, in a way the stock market is not.
- Fool’s Folly
My final four picks again include Kansas and Baylor. Not so bad, considering that they were title winners in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Houston, too, has performed well in the last three tournaments: they made the Sweet Sixteen in 2019 and appeared in the Elite Eight for both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- Intrastate Competition
Only after I finished my bracket did I realize the match-ups I created involving schools located within the same state. Memphis vs. Tennessee, Texas A&M vs. Texas, Houston vs. Texas. My final four selections leave room for a Baylor vs. Houston competition in the Final Round, although I didn’t end up making that prediction.
- Biases on Display
Continuing to snub Kentucky and Duke on my bracket is a choice and I make it every time, without hesitation, without a second thought about it. My 2022 bracket paid dearly for this, as Duke made its way to the Final Four. But you win some, lose some: I still was able to enjoy the gratification of an early Kentucky exit in historical fashion, when Saint Peter’s emerged victorious in a first round overtime upset.
